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Lies, Big Lies, and Statistics
By James Moreland July 11, 2006 Gaithersburg, MD For the Washington Running Report
Happy birthday today to 70-year-old Tami Graf of Lusby, MD
(In photo above)
People are often interested to learn about rankings of runners.
There are so many different criteria. Fast times on similar
courses and head-to-head match-ups. There is a reason why road
records are considered world bests, not records. The same
applies to elevation and wind factors. One could set the world
record for the mile even with the terrific wind resistance
simply jumping from a plane at 5280 feet!There is the old tale that "Stats" are the worst of the three.
What makes statistics interesting is that even as numbers
applied as objectively as possible there is still lots of
wiggle room. We all have our preference for the quantity and
type of races we run. Steve Nearman (45) still runs a super
mile, 4:41 this week. Though he could race well at nearly any
distance, he prefers to run middle distance only (800-1M). The
name of Ted Poulos comes up frequently about mega racing.
Poulos prefers many distances. Still, his last marathon was in
2000 when he was the overall winner in 2:50:07. He concentrates
on the 3K where in 2000 he ran a 9:17.9. In the last ten years,
he has run more than 500 5Ks, 500 3Ks, and nearly 400 1-miles. In the Runner Rankings, less than three miles does not
count. Alisa Harvey (winning one of her first masters races
at the Thomas G. Labrecque Classic 4 Mile) has the fastest
mile of the year (4:48.48) and it was in a club race. She has
run 800M in 2:03 and has pending masters middle distance
records. Try to outkick her at the end of a 10K. She does not
just race locally.
Michael Wardian (runner-up at the Annapolis 10 Miler)
runs marathons at the drop of the hat. So does John Piggott
(40) of Williamsburg who finished second and third to Wardian
at two of his three Marathons. While Wardian was winning his
third in DC, Piggott was repeating defending his title at Piney
Point. Both of these runners are very capable at other
distances. Still, they lean toward the races they run the best.The conversion from marathon to 10K is harsher than for other
distances. These factors are based on what a runner could
expect for themselves. The world records for each distance are
set by different people. Ronnie Wong will soon be 60 and he has more than 65 marathons
to his credit since 1998. He has raced a 1300 mile race twice
in the early 90s, wining once. At 5 foot 7, and about 120
pounds dripping wet, he is not designed for sprints. Don Vandrey, now nearly sixty, used to run the mile sub 4:10,
racing tight races with the great Jim Ryun. Both of these men
are big. Sure, as teens, 6 foot three inches help with a 160
pound frame. As a masters runner, both are now Clydesdales (185
or more). When Vandrey ran for MCRRC in the early 90s his
Marine Corps Marathon Clydesdale win in 2:50:00 helped make him
Masters Runner of the Year.
Chuck Moeser (always a favorite at the
Leesburg 10K) came to town back in 1986
with the brash promise to the Washington Post that he
would win the Marine Corps Marathon. He was not far wrong,
finishing in the top ten in 2:26. Since then he dominated the
running scene, whenever he ran. He was always a great sound
bite. He was the man to beat and that did not happen often.
Some less auspicious runners such as James Pryde (Annapolis 10
Mile masters record 53:48) and Ric Banning, also in 1994
defending his masters title at Army in 51:49, made their
mark challenging Moeser. 1994 was the lowest ranking ever for
Moeser, third. He promptly rebounded in the spring, winning his
division. As Moeser was moving toward 45-49, Jim Whitnah came
along to win Army in 53:07, tugging at superman's cape. In
1998, Peter Kirk blasted a 15:29 at the star studded Ferndale
5K to beat Moeser (15:31). That short-lived race once had Jim
Hage 20th place in 15:09. Moeser came right back to win the
Race for the Cure over Kirk 15:21 to 15:34. Then when Chuck
turned fifty he was golden for nearly four years until Stephen
Chantry came along. Moeser "Garboed up" and comparisons were
hard to find until last fall when they met head-to-head. Now
Moeser is on the brink of 55 and he still has the goods. Tim Morgan is the son of multi-race national age group record
holder Hubert Morgan. Hubert ran 58:12 at age 58 at Cherry
Blossom in 1980. Five years later he slowed to another national
record of 1:01:28. At age 62, he ran 1:16:55 for the 20K. Tim
and his brother Rick were teased by their dad for never having
broken sixty minutes for 10 Miles. Tim ran Army three times,
improving each time. He won the Grandmasters title in 2002 with
60:28. He may be waiting to turn 58 before breaking the hour. Betty Blank (53) has been a model of consistency. Even when Ms.
Indestructible claims to be hurt, her times never seem to
waiver. She is nearly always at the top and is often the runner
to beat in the overall as well.
So who is the top runner when you add in age? Patrick Griffith
(61) and Jim Hage (48) have also been overall winners.
Dalmatian Griffith has 101 straight age group wins as of July
4th. Senior runners are breathing a sigh of relief as Griffith
is planning to relocate to Florida in the near future. He is a
master at winning awards, including randoms. Surprised race
officials have tried to give him age group awards rather than
his earned masters and even overall awards. Jim Hage (flying home at the Kensington 8K for second
overall in 2002) has no right to be so humble. You just
cannot get him to talk about his racing prowess. He has been
winning for so long he really does not count masters. He won
Marine Corps Marathon twice, so Darrell General did too.
General had won Army twice in the 80s, so Hage, also a
multi-time Olympic qualifier in the marathon, came out in 1990
and set the record at 49:31. The following year he settled for
second in a monster-duel win with General, who ran 48:49. Two
years later Hage was back to win in 50:37. In 2001 Hage won the AS Father's Day 10K in 33:18 decisively
over current nemesis Greg Cauller (34:32) and Ted Poulos
(34:51). Poulos won the next year in 34:06. After the race, an
awed woman came over to congratulate him on his time. I noted
that he had run a faster pace for a marathon. As late as Boston
1999, Hage led the first women to the finish with his 2:22:44.
He also became the oldest man (44) to ever win the JFK 50.2
miler. Still, he demurred and agreed modestly that he had run
faster, if only to mollify my bragging of his record.
In Frederick, the Steeplechasers have a decathlon series of
races each summer. Each week for ten weeks runners compete at
ten different distances: (200M, 400M, 600M, 800M, 1K, 1500M,
1600M, 1M, 3200M, 2M). Each race is scored by time and then age
graded. Every race counts, so running all ten is best.
Naturally, the fastest runner is not necessarily the winner. In
last week's 200M, young Brian Markley was approached in the
starting gate and asked if he thought he could win. He had run
away with the first four races. He nodded proudly at his dad
Tony (52) and said, "There's your winner." Brian crossed the
line first in 23.86 and FSC President Paul Spurrier's furious
charge got him second in 25:26. Tony blazed home third in 25.74
and earned the top prize age grading to 22:43.Carl Clark (42) of New Market, MD won the Main Street Mile in
4:13. This street mile is 90% downhill and many runners find
their times faster. Alex Lorenzoni ran the Bruce Barnes Mile on
the track to tie Clark. At the Market Street Mile in 1992, the
fourth place runner was 4:50.3, getting caught at the end of
the long downhill by less than a second. The following spring
at George Mason's super indoor track where only the top three
runners advanced, he was caught again by four hundreds of a
second for fourth in 4:49.03. So now, we have to try to justify records based on times,
head-to-head competition, reputation, heredity, jurisdiction,
distances, quality of the race course, the weather (photo
above at the start of the
2005 Twilight 8K, being run this
Saturday, has always had steamy hot weather until last year's
rainstorm--50% said it was better; the other half said it was
worse) the health of the runner, running surface (like tennis,
was it on grass or clay?) the prestige of the race, the level
of competition, weight of the runner, and their age. Of course,
all of these considerations can be thrown aside by the best
looking running outfit.
Photos below
- Casey Smith (26) of Arlington, VA was fourth at the 2006 St. Patrick's Day 8K in 28:03.
- Elvira Kolpakova (33) of Germantown, MD is runner-up at the 2005 Goblin Gallop 5K in 17:34.
- Jessica Storm (29) of Reston, VA is fifth overall at the 2006 Cascades Firechase 10K in 39:58.
- Elena Orlova (36) of Gaithersburg, MD is third overall at the 2006 Pike's Peek 10K in 34:26.
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