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Lies, Big Lies, and Statistics
By James Moreland
July 11, 2006
Gaithersburg, MD
For the Washington Running Report

Happy birthday today to 70-year-old Tami Graf of Lusby, MD (In photo above)

People are often interested to learn about rankings of runners. There are so many different criteria. Fast times on similar courses and head-to-head match-ups. There is a reason why road records are considered world bests, not records. The same applies to elevation and wind factors. One could set the world record for the mile even with the terrific wind resistance simply jumping from a plane at 5280 feet!

There is the old tale that "Stats" are the worst of the three. What makes statistics interesting is that even as numbers applied as objectively as possible there is still lots of wiggle room. We all have our preference for the quantity and type of races we run. Steve Nearman (45) still runs a super mile, 4:41 this week. Though he could race well at nearly any distance, he prefers to run middle distance only (800-1M). The name of Ted Poulos comes up frequently about mega racing. Poulos prefers many distances. Still, his last marathon was in 2000 when he was the overall winner in 2:50:07. He concentrates on the 3K where in 2000 he ran a 9:17.9. In the last ten years, he has run more than 500 5Ks, 500 3Ks, and nearly 400 1-miles.

In the Runner Rankings, less than three miles does not count. Alisa Harvey (winning one of her first masters races at the Thomas G. Labrecque Classic 4 Mile) has the fastest mile of the year (4:48.48) and it was in a club race. She has run 800M in 2:03 and has pending masters middle distance records. Try to outkick her at the end of a 10K. She does not just race locally.

Michael Wardian (runner-up at the Annapolis 10 Miler) runs marathons at the drop of the hat. So does John Piggott (40) of Williamsburg who finished second and third to Wardian at two of his three Marathons. While Wardian was winning his third in DC, Piggott was repeating defending his title at Piney Point. Both of these runners are very capable at other distances. Still, they lean toward the races they run the best.

The conversion from marathon to 10K is harsher than for other distances. These factors are based on what a runner could expect for themselves. The world records for each distance are set by different people.

Ronnie Wong will soon be 60 and he has more than 65 marathons to his credit since 1998. He has raced a 1300 mile race twice in the early 90s, wining once. At 5 foot 7, and about 120 pounds dripping wet, he is not designed for sprints.

Don Vandrey, now nearly sixty, used to run the mile sub 4:10, racing tight races with the great Jim Ryun. Both of these men are big. Sure, as teens, 6 foot three inches help with a 160 pound frame. As a masters runner, both are now Clydesdales (185 or more). When Vandrey ran for MCRRC in the early 90s his Marine Corps Marathon Clydesdale win in 2:50:00 helped make him Masters Runner of the Year.

Chuck Moeser (always a favorite at the Leesburg 10K) came to town back in 1986 with the brash promise to the Washington Post that he would win the Marine Corps Marathon. He was not far wrong, finishing in the top ten in 2:26. Since then he dominated the running scene, whenever he ran. He was always a great sound bite. He was the man to beat and that did not happen often. Some less auspicious runners such as James Pryde (Annapolis 10 Mile masters record 53:48) and Ric Banning, also in 1994 defending his masters title at Army in 51:49, made their mark challenging Moeser. 1994 was the lowest ranking ever for Moeser, third. He promptly rebounded in the spring, winning his division. As Moeser was moving toward 45-49, Jim Whitnah came along to win Army in 53:07, tugging at superman's cape. In 1998, Peter Kirk blasted a 15:29 at the star studded Ferndale 5K to beat Moeser (15:31). That short-lived race once had Jim Hage 20th place in 15:09. Moeser came right back to win the Race for the Cure over Kirk 15:21 to 15:34. Then when Chuck turned fifty he was golden for nearly four years until Stephen Chantry came along. Moeser "Garboed up" and comparisons were hard to find until last fall when they met head-to-head. Now Moeser is on the brink of 55 and he still has the goods.

Tim Morgan is the son of multi-race national age group record holder Hubert Morgan. Hubert ran 58:12 at age 58 at Cherry Blossom in 1980. Five years later he slowed to another national record of 1:01:28. At age 62, he ran 1:16:55 for the 20K. Tim and his brother Rick were teased by their dad for never having broken sixty minutes for 10 Miles. Tim ran Army three times, improving each time. He won the Grandmasters title in 2002 with 60:28. He may be waiting to turn 58 before breaking the hour.

Betty Blank (53) has been a model of consistency. Even when Ms. Indestructible claims to be hurt, her times never seem to waiver. She is nearly always at the top and is often the runner to beat in the overall as well.

So who is the top runner when you add in age? Patrick Griffith (61) and Jim Hage (48) have also been overall winners. Dalmatian Griffith has 101 straight age group wins as of July 4th. Senior runners are breathing a sigh of relief as Griffith is planning to relocate to Florida in the near future. He is a master at winning awards, including randoms. Surprised race officials have tried to give him age group awards rather than his earned masters and even overall awards.

Jim Hage (flying home at the Kensington 8K for second overall in 2002) has no right to be so humble. You just cannot get him to talk about his racing prowess. He has been winning for so long he really does not count masters. He won Marine Corps Marathon twice, so Darrell General did too. General had won Army twice in the 80s, so Hage, also a multi-time Olympic qualifier in the marathon, came out in 1990 and set the record at 49:31. The following year he settled for second in a monster-duel win with General, who ran 48:49. Two years later Hage was back to win in 50:37.

In 2001 Hage won the AS Father's Day 10K in 33:18 decisively over current nemesis Greg Cauller (34:32) and Ted Poulos (34:51). Poulos won the next year in 34:06. After the race, an awed woman came over to congratulate him on his time. I noted that he had run a faster pace for a marathon. As late as Boston 1999, Hage led the first women to the finish with his 2:22:44. He also became the oldest man (44) to ever win the JFK 50.2 miler. Still, he demurred and agreed modestly that he had run faster, if only to mollify my bragging of his record.

In Frederick, the Steeplechasers have a decathlon series of races each summer. Each week for ten weeks runners compete at ten different distances: (200M, 400M, 600M, 800M, 1K, 1500M, 1600M, 1M, 3200M, 2M). Each race is scored by time and then age graded. Every race counts, so running all ten is best. Naturally, the fastest runner is not necessarily the winner. In last week's 200M, young Brian Markley was approached in the starting gate and asked if he thought he could win. He had run away with the first four races. He nodded proudly at his dad Tony (52) and said, "There's your winner." Brian crossed the line first in 23.86 and FSC President Paul Spurrier's furious charge got him second in 25:26. Tony blazed home third in 25.74 and earned the top prize age grading to 22:43.

Carl Clark (42) of New Market, MD won the Main Street Mile in 4:13. This street mile is 90% downhill and many runners find their times faster. Alex Lorenzoni ran the Bruce Barnes Mile on the track to tie Clark. At the Market Street Mile in 1992, the fourth place runner was 4:50.3, getting caught at the end of the long downhill by less than a second. The following spring at George Mason's super indoor track where only the top three runners advanced, he was caught again by four hundreds of a second for fourth in 4:49.03.

So now, we have to try to justify records based on times, head-to-head competition, reputation, heredity, jurisdiction, distances, quality of the race course, the weather (photo above at the start of the 2005 Twilight 8K, being run this Saturday, has always had steamy hot weather until last year's rainstorm--50% said it was better; the other half said it was worse) the health of the runner, running surface (like tennis, was it on grass or clay?) the prestige of the race, the level of competition, weight of the runner, and their age. Of course, all of these considerations can be thrown aside by the best looking running outfit.

Photos below

  1. Casey Smith (26) of Arlington, VA was fourth at the 2006 St. Patrick's Day 8K in 28:03.

  2. Elvira Kolpakova (33) of Germantown, MD is runner-up at the 2005 Goblin Gallop 5K in 17:34.

  3. Jessica Storm (29) of Reston, VA is fifth overall at the 2006 Cascades Firechase 10K in 39:58.

  4. Elena Orlova (36) of Gaithersburg, MD is third overall at the 2006 Pike's Peek 10K in 34:26.


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